Lua三门问题：换门策略的概率翻转

local function playOnce(swap)
    local prize = math.random(1, 3)
    local pick = math.random(1, 3)
    local open
    repeat
        open = math.random(1, 3)
    until open ~= prize and open ~= pick
    if swap then
        for d = 1, 3 do
            if d ~= pick and d ~= open then
                pick = d
            end
        end
    end
    return pick == prize
end

local function simulate(n)
    local win = 0
    for i = 1, n do
        if playOnce(true) then win = win + 1 end
    end
    return win / n
end
local p = getplayerbyname("door01")
sendmsg(p, 1, "换门胜率约 "
    .. math.floor(simulate(10000) * 100) .. "%")